| Ceo Morrow Believes in Mongolia's Economy; He Hopes Investors at Upcoming Forum Will Too |
| Written by William Kennedy | |
| Thursday, August 14, 2008. | |
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"IT'S boom time," Khaan Bank CEO Peter Morrow says about Ulaanbaatar's thriving retail business. Before long, he hopes to employ the same phrase for Mongolia's economy at large. Next month Morrow, along with representatives from other domestic companies, will try to convince investors of Mongolia's bright future at a Euromoney magazine sponsored forum.
When Morrow came to Ulaanbaatar in 2000, he said, The State Department Store housed a series of vegetable and meat stalls, while only about one-third of street level apartments were commercial businesses. Now the city's most recognizable shop boasts an entire room devoted to perfume and jewelry, while nearly every ground-level building is a business. Khaan Bank and other companies anticipate a similar effect on a grand scale if Mongolia's government and international mining companies can finalize pending deals. New Mongolian mines, Morrow believes, would trigger unprecedented economic growth in the country, making it a very attractive place for foreign investment. But investors eyeing Mongolia need proof their money is safe in the Great Hural State, especially with economic gloom lingering from the United States mortgage crisis. In particular, investors want to know about Mongolia's recent political unrest and why the nation, which has started talks with many companies, has only opened one new mine since democratization in 1990. Morrow and other officials with domestic businesses will have their chance to address these concerns at Euromoney's third Mongolia Investment Forum in Ulaanbaatar this September. For his part, Morrow is confident that visiting investors will leave with a good impression. "Is Mongolia still a stable place to invest, is it a good place to invest?" Morrow said. "The answer is absolutely." Certainly recent economic statistics look good for Mongolia. According to different estimates the country's GDP grew by about 9 to 10 percent in 2007. That rate ranks among the highest in Asia, and Morrow believes it could be an underestimate by half. Regardless, he says, Mongolia has achieved this growth primarily by tapping resources which Russian companies gained access to before 1990s true potential is far greater. More good news for Mongolia: the country's proximity to economic powerhouse China, a growing cultural profile--ťan expanding tourist industry and contemporary literature about Mongolia have raised global awareness of the country--and good economic news has enticed the world's largest financial corporations to pay regular visits to Ulaanbaatar. "Maybe two or three years ago you couldn't organize such a forum because there wasn't an awareness of Mongolia," Morrow said. "All of a sudden, Mongolia is the big new place." Two previous Mongolia Euromoney investment forums in Ulaanbaatar, as well as one in New York and one in London, have further attracted investor attention. Mongolia is starting to gain an international reputation, but it has not fully emerged on the world market. According to Morrow, its late start may prove an advantage in today's economic climate as Mongolia has avoided everything but indirect effects of international economic problems. "No banks in Mongolia had issued any mortgage backed securities and no banks had purchased any mortgage backed securities that I know of," he said. "We're a place that they can look at and say, we're pretty well insulated from these problems, so they can put money in Mongolia." Despite these advantages, Morrow and others will face some tough questions at the forum. "First of all," Morrow said, "when are we going to get started with this mining? That's on the tip of everybody's tongues." Mongolia has come close, but has yet to finalize more than one deal with a mining company in nearly 20 years. The Rio Tinto project in Oyun Tolgoi will be up for review soon, and Morrow thinks that Mongolia's government is finally ready to give it the ok. This event could go a long way toward easing investors' fears. "The second question everybody wonders is what was the effect of the July 1 affair," Morrow said. In his eyes, violence that erupted after Mongolia's parliamentary elections this summer was an isolated incident. "I think in the end it will have minimal effect on the politics of Mongolia. This is a democracy, it's not always perfect, it's very young, but it's very real," he said. In fact, Morrow takes heart in this year's results, believing that Mongolia and its MPRP led government are in prime condition for business. "I think this Prime Minister has a clear majority, he will get a government formed and put them to work," Morrow said. So far the Democratic Party has stalled efforts to swear in parliamentary members and begin a fully operational session. Morrow and others certainly hope that the government can get to work by September, and maybe even provide some evidence of progress on mining deals for potential investors. Speakers at the forum will address these and a number of other topics including what role environmental concerns will play in mining, what legislation Mongolia plans to take to facilitate economic development, and how companies in Mongolia have reacted to China's growing mineral demands. Morrow will present on the effects of the July 1 riots in Mongolia, but he said, it is probably the time investors spend exploring Ulaanbaatar itself that will have the greatest impact. "You can see the great vibrancy, the excitement of what's happening here," Morrow said. "You see the buildings that are going up, the businesses that are happening here, the growth rates of the banks and the number of mining companies that are operating here. You get a tangible sense of what's possible." If new mines do open, Morrow said, it will be the supply chains and support systems these billion dollar developments require that offer the greatest benefit to Mongolians as new jobs and industries inundate. This conference will not likely ignite any immediate action or changes and while its impacts could eventually affect the entire nation, the goal for the 2008 forum, at least for Khaan bank, is simple. "We hope [investors] go home with a good feeling about the future of Mongolian investments," Morrow said. |